On July 12, 2017, the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75%. Canada’s five biggest banks immediately followed suite, matching the 0.25% increase in their prime interest rates.
The move came as no surprise to economists, who have been predicting a rate increase for some time now in response to record-high levels of consumer spending, housing prices, and household debt in Canada. But for many ordinary Canadians, who haven’t seen rates go up since 2010, the hike is alarming.
Some of you will have already felt the effects of the change. Others are still wondering if (and how) it will impact their day-to-day lives. We’ve examined how the new interest rate will impact two key areas: mortgages and the value of the Canadian dollar, and individuals like you.
What Does the Interest Rate Do?
As Canada’s central bank, the Bank of Canada sets the overnight interest rate. This is the rate banks pay to make one-day loans to each other. When the overnight interest rate goes up, banks usually increase their prime interest rate as well – which is what happened this week.
A bank’s prime interest rate is the rate banks use to calculate a variety of loans, including variable-rate mortgages and lines of credit. The five biggest Canadian banks (TD Canada Trust, Bank of Montreal, Scotiabank, and CIBC) all had a rate of 2.70% before the change. In response to the Bank of Canada’s change, they bumped the rate up to 2.95%.
That means bank customers with loans based on the prime rate will see their interest payments go up immediately.
Value of the Canadian Dollar
After the announcement went public, the value of the loonie shot up from 77.40 to 78.70 cents on the American dollar. That’s the highest the dollar has been since August of 2016. Some economists, including Adam Button of Forexlive.com and Scotiabank strategist Eric Theoret, predict it could hit 80 cents this year.
The cause? Confidence, according to Theoret. Though markets saw the rate increase coming, people were surprised by the Bank of Canada governor’s confidence in the move. This, along with positive economic data, shows the Canadian economy doing well and recovering from the recent oil-slump.
Mortgages and Housing Market
As mentioned, people with variable-rate mortgages will see an immediate uptick in the amount of interest they pay to lenders. The change could impact those with fixed-rate mortgages as well, as they could see higher rates when it comes time to renew.
For some, the change will be difficult to cope with. 0.25% is no small increase for those who are already struggling to pay their mortgages. It will be especially difficult for would-be house flippers who purchased a second or third home at the height of the housing boom in hope of a quick turn-around, seeing as the housing market has cooled since the spring.
But that’s not the only way the interest rate hike could impact housing. The other effect is harder to predict, but sure to be felt: a shift in consumer sentiment.
Preet Banerjee, the author of Stop Over-Thinking Your Money!, predicts the rate hike will change how Canadian consumers think about spending and borrowing.
“Because interest rates have fallen, and because borrowing money has become normalized, this could represent a real problem for them because they’ve gotten used to living month-to-month, paycheque-to-paycheque as a lot of people do, with very low costs of interest,” says Banerjee.
Right now, an alarming number of Canadians are comfortable carrying high debt loads and saving little to no money each month. Banerjee argues the interest rate hike could serve as a wake-up call.
This could only accelerate the recent dip in house prices, as consumers take a step back and wait for the right time to jump into the market. With real estate and financial services making up 20% of the Canadian economy, even small shifts in the market could have drastic effects on our economy overall.